Autumn 2026: the Paris market faces rising rates
Oct 23, 2026
Sales are picking up in Paris and prices are holding. But credit is becoming more expensive and the OAT is above 5%: the autumn rate shock is not yet reflected in prices.
Key takeaways
Sales of existing homes in Paris: +20% year on year in Q2 2026, prices virtually stable at €9,560/sq m.
The average mortgage rate rose back to 3.40% in September, compared with 3.16% at the end of 2025.
Prime yields rose by 25 basis points in Q3; CBD offices at 4.25% to 4.50%.
The Paris market is entering winter at two speeds. Existing homes have found buyers again, at stable prices. Investment property, on the other hand, is being repriced under pressure from rates: the 10-year OAT (French government bond) crossed 5% on 21 October and stood at 5.13% the following day (Banque de France).
The housing figures predate this tension. They describe a market that was emerging from its correction; they do not yet show what higher borrowing costs will do to it this winter.
The dashboard
Indicator | Level | Date | Change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Prices of existing flats, Paris | €9,560/sq m | Q2 2026 | +0.6% year on year | Notaires du Grand Paris |
Projection based on preliminary agreements | around €9,620/sq m | end Sept. 2026 | - | Notaires du Grand Paris |
Sales of existing homes, Paris | 7,430 | Q2 2026 | +20% year on year | Notaires du Grand Paris |
Sales of existing homes, Île-de-France | 31,750 | Q2 2026 | +10% year on year | Notaires du Grand Paris |
Average mortgage rate | 3.40% | Sept. 2026 | 3.16% in Dec. 2025 | Crédit Logement/CSA |
10-year OAT | 5.13% | 22 Oct. 2026 | 3.44% average in Oct. 2025 | Banque de France |
Commercial property investment, Île-de-France | €2.4bn in Q3; €5.5bn over 9 months | Q3 2026 | +36%; stable | ImmoStat |
Commercial property investment, France | €3.4bn in Q3; €10.3bn over 9 months | Q3 2026 | +21%; +16% | ImmoStat |
Office take-up, Île-de-France | 1,050,300 sq m over 9 months | end Sept. 2026 | −14% | ImmoStat |
Office vacancy, CBD | 6.9% | Q3 2026 | 5.1% a year earlier | Cushman & Wakefield |
Prime office rent, CBD | €1,250/sq m per year | Q3 2026 | +4% year on year | Cushman & Wakefield |
Prime office yield, CBD | 4.25% to 4.50% | Q3 2026 | +25 bp over the quarter | JLL |
Prime high street retail yield | 4.25% | Q3 2026 | +25 bp over the quarter | JLL |
Prime logistics yield | 5.15% | Q3 2026 | +25 bp over the quarter | JLL |
Prime residential yield, Paris | 3.50% | Q2 2026 | stable | CBRE |
Rent reference index (IRL) | 148.06 | Q3 2026 | +1.57% year on year | Insee |
Housing: volumes pick up, prices wait
The Notaires du Grand Paris recorded 7,430 sales of existing homes in Paris in the second quarter, 20% more than a year earlier. Prices barely moved: €9,560/sq m, +0.6% year on year, after a peak of €9,700/sq m in the third quarter of 2025. Preliminary agreements signed this summer point to around €9,620/sq m at the end of September.
These figures predate the autumn tension on rates. The next Notaires-Insee index, due on 24 November, will show whether signings have slowed.
Credit: the rise in long-term rates is starting to feed through
The average mortgage rate rose back to 3.40% in September according to the Crédit Logement/CSA Observatory, compared with 3.16% in December 2025. The Banque de France series, which measures the effective rates on new loans, shows the same reversal: 3.17% in August, after a low of 2.96% in September 2025.
Banks adjust their rate grids with a lag on the OAT. The OAT went from 3.61% at the end of June to more than 5% at the end of October: the rise in borrowing costs should accelerate this winter.
Commercial property: volumes up, values under pressure
Investment in Île-de-France reached €2.4bn in the third quarter, 36% more than a year earlier (ImmoStat). But prime yields rose by 25 basis points across all asset classes, and CBD offices are trading at 4.25% to 4.50% (JLL). The OAT now yields more: In Focus no. 01 examines this reversal in detail.
The office letting market is weakening on the periphery and holding up in the centre. Take-up is down 14% over nine months and vacancy has reached 11.2% in Île-de-France. In the CBD, it remains at 6.9% and the prime rent has risen to €1,250/sq m per year (Cushman & Wakefield).
Rents: rent control extended by the Senate
The rent reference index rose by 1.57% year on year in the third quarter (Insee). On 21 October the Senate voted, by 325 votes to 17, to extend rent control for two years, including in Paris. The National Assembly must adopt the text in identical terms before 24 November, failing which the scheme will lapse.
Our view
Paris housing has completed its correction. After a 3.1% year-on-year fall at the end of 2024, prices are stabilising and buyers are returning.
The autumn rate shock is not yet reflected in prices. It will feed through via lending, with a lag of a few months. Sellers of homes have a window until the spring.
In commercial property, the repricing is under way. Equity buyers are setting prices, facing institutional sellers who have to make disposal decisions.
What would change our view
An easing of the OAT after Moody’s opinion (23 October) and the ECB meetings (29 October, 17 December).
A marked fall in the autumn Notaires-Insee index, on 24 November.
The National Assembly’s vote on rent control before 24 November.
Next Barometer: January 2027, with fourth-quarter data.
This document does not constitute investment advice.